Moody's Analytics
Economic Outlook Conference

The Next Recession

May 7-9, 2018
Wilmington, Delaware
The 2018 Economic Outlook Conference will discuss challenges, best practices, and new approaches for responding to an evolving marketplace with confidence. Join Mark Zandi and top economists from Moody’s Analytics as we cover today’s most critical business issues, including stress-testing, inflation, fiscal and monetary policy, used-car prices, household credit, the global outlook, housing, IFRS9, CECL, and commercial real estate.
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THE NEXT RECESSION

To Be Determined 

Now in its XXXXXX year, the Moody’s Analytics Economic Outlook Conference (EOC) offers you....

Technology Trends

  • Innovation in Financial Services and Credit Risk Management
  • Underwriting Automation with AI
  • Cloud: Getting on Board
  • Online Lending
  • Open APIs

Principles and Practices

  • Credit Model Development and Convergence
  • Expanding the Use of Risk Ratings and Scorecards
  • Small Business Lending
  • ‍Economic, Market, and Regulatory Changes in Risk Management
  • The Hunt for Yield

CECL/IFRS 9

  • Impact of CECL on C&I Portfolios
  • Lessons Learned from IFRS 9
  • Stress Testing and CECL
  • Scenario Design
  • CECL Readiness Assessment

Quant Analysis & Data Science

  • AI and Deep Learning
  • Machine Learning and CRE
  • Risk Modeling in Era of AI and Big Data
  • Regulatory Trends and New Accounting Rules
The Event

Benefits

Advance Your Knowledge
Build Your Skills
Broaden Your Network

See ALL Features
WHY ATTEND?
  • Learn from  experts about the latest innovations in risk management and regulatory compliance
  • Hear how your peers leverage risk management best practices to improve their business results
  • Discuss your organization’s unique challenges with a Moody’s Analytics expert in the Solutions Corner
  • Network with like-minded practitioners
WHO SHOULD ATTEND?
  • Chief Risk Officers
  • Heads of Risk Management and other senior risk management
  • Heads of Stress Testing
  • Financial technology leaders
  • Senior finance and treasury professionals
NETWORKING

A ball game, a cold beer or a glass of wine, good food and a warm spring evening...whatever the setting, you will have ample opportunity to interact with peers that share the same challenges, and the ability to compare notes and forge relationships.

LUNCH AND LEARNS

Discuss common topics of interest with your peers and Moody's Analytics experts over a casual lunch.

Show/Hide Schedule detail

Agenda

Day 1 

Monday, May 7, 2018
5:00 PM TO 7:00 PM

Welcome Reception

Day 2

Tuesday, May 8, 2018
8:00 AM TO 8:45 AM

Registration

8:45 AM TO 9:00 AM

Welcome

9:00 AM TO 10:15 AM

"The Next Recession"

The next couple of years will be boom years for the US economy.  Massive deficit financed-tax cuts and increased government spending, along with synchronized global growth and accelerating wage growth, will power growth. But odds are rising that the economy will overheat, ending in the next recession.

Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics

10:15 AM TO 10:45 AM

Break

STREAMS
Balance Sheet Risk
Global Risk
Policy Risk
10:45 AM TO 11:45 AM
U.S. Consumer Outlook:
Less Boom Before the Bust
While the U.S. economy is entering a boom-bust cycle, consumers will see less of a boom before the bust. Credit will not be a major problem, except for some microbubbles for some products and regions, but the lack of financial cushion because of low saving and a drop in wealth effect spending will be drags for the next several years. This session will highlight how these factors could play out over the next few years and give the outlook for the consumer credit markets, especially where the risks might brew.

Speakers:
Scott Hoyt, Moody's Analytics
Deniz Tudor, Moody's Analytics
Global Risk:
Alert but Not Alarmed
Synchronized global growth is expected to continue through 2018, with all the major regions expanding in unison. Global economic fundaments appear to be sound. Nevertheless, downside risks on the horizon have the potential to destabilize financial markets and create significant deceleration events. This presentation examines the growth prospects for the major regions and countries and explores the key near-term challenges and risks and the potential impact on the global economy.

Speakers:
Alfredo Coutino, Moody's Analytics
Ruth Stroppiana, Moody's Analytics
Will the Fed Cause
the Next Recession?
The most frequent catalyst for post-World War II recessions in the U.S. have been policy mistakes by the Federal Reserve and oil price shocks. With the current expansion getting long in the tooth and fiscal stimulus in the pipeline, there are concerns the Fed will tighten to aggressively, short-circuiting the expansion. These concerns are not misplaced, given that this tightening cycle is unusual given the Fed is raising short-term interest rates and reducing the size of its balance sheet. This session will discuss the outlook for monetary policy over the next couple of years and how the central bank will respond to the next recession, which could require a change to their policy framework. A change to the Fed’s policy framework could be needed to address the next downturn as fiscal policy will unlikely be able to help as much as it has during past recessions.

Speaker:
Ryan Sweet, Moody's Analytics
11:45 AM TO 12:45 PM

Lunch

12:45 PM TO 1:45 PM
U.S. Housing Outlook:
So Far So Good.
The U.S. housing market is doing well and shows no sign of any impending correction. However, there are still some challenges to be met before sales and residential construction can expand further and contribute more to GDP growth. These barriers include construction constraints, owners’ reluctance to sell their homes, low affordability in some U.S. regions, and the fragile financial situation of younger potential first-time homebuyers. But the U.S. economic outlook adds grounds for optimism: Continued real wage growth under full employment and steadily increasing supply will help improve affordability and lead to increased sales in coming years even in the face of higher interest rates.

Speaker:

Andres Carbacho-Burgos, Moody's Analytics
Global Model with Collaborative Forecast Platform
The economic and credit risks faced by clients are becoming more global in scope, creating a need for ever better tools to meet evolving risk assessment needs, satisfy regulatory demands, and produce reasonable and supportable scenarios. Moody’s Analytics has undertaken a multi-year investment to design a new platform to meet these needs:  a globally linked macroeconomic model producing more than 10,000 forecast series for 64 countries, powered by an innovative web-based collaborative forecast application that enables globally distributed teams to work together in real time to generate economic scenarios with rigorous forecast governance.

Speakers:
Richard Cross, Moody's Analytics
Mark Hopkins, Moody's Analytics
The New Normal for U.S. Fiscal Policy
Despite a growing economy, U.S. governments are set to face some of the most challenging budget conditions in modern American history. This session will discuss how the next turn in the business cycle will make the task of budgeting more difficult for policymakers and explore how changing federal, state, and local government fiscal conditions will affect the pace of economic growth in the years ahead.

Speaker:
Dan White, Moody's Analytics
1:45 PM TO 2:00 PM

Break

2:00 pM TO 3:00 pM
Commercial Real Estate:
A New Lease on Life?
Commercial real estate finally appears to be tapping the brakes. Price growth has slowed, activity has lessened, and technology has changed the playing field for many property types. This session will provide an overview of the CRE market, including a discussion of recent trends and a look at the implications of the new tax law.

Speaker:
Adam Kamins, Moody's Analytics
NAFTA Negotiations:
Prospects and Risks
In this session, we will address the economic impact of NAFTA negotiations between the U.S. and NAFTA partners – Mexico and Canada. We will assess the potential upside of a new NAFTA for the three economies and will also consider the economic fallout should the negotiations and NAFTA fail.

Speaker:
Jesse Rogers, Moody's Analytics
Revisiting Fiscal Space
It’s never too early to plan for the next recession, but some countries' ability to address it could be limited by their lack of fiscal space. Fiscal space is defined as the difference between a nation's sovereign debt-to-GDP ratio and the limit beyond which the nation will default unless policymakers take unprecedented steps. This session will highlight that fiscal space is sensitive to economic fundamentals, and sudden shifts in fundamentals can change a country’s fiscal space significantly. Even a modest deterioration—such as a decline in the expected GDP growth, or a sustained increase in the government bond yield—can quickly reduce the amount of fiscal space available to the sovereign state.

Speakers:
Damien Moore, Moody's Analytics
Ryan Sweet, Moody’s Analytics
3:00 pM TO 3:30 pM

Break

3:30 pM TO 4:30 pM
What’s the Future of Dodd-Frank?
Discussion in Washington has focused on softening the Dodd-Frank rules for bank regulation.  Much of the talk has focused on the asset thresholds used to determine which banks are eligible for which stress test.   In this talk, we will focus on three questions relevant to this debate. The first concerns the impact of asset size thresholds on the performance of banks – have stress test requirements hindered bank profitability, capital, or risk appetite since the laws came into effect? The second question relates to the impact of Dodd-Frank – and its potential loosening – on the long and short run economic outlook. Finally, we will describe a blueprint for the structure of bank regulation that balances growth and systemic bank safety.

Speaker:
Anthony Hughes, Moody’s Analytics
Immigration and the U.S. Economy
This presentation will discuss recent trends in U.S. immigration and place them in a historical, economic, demographic, and political context. In particular, the recent decline in Mexican migration to the U.S. will be examined, and whether this is likely to be a temporary or permanent change. Finally, the short-term and long-term immigration forecast, what it means for the economy, will be discussed.

Speaker:
Adam Ozimek, Moody's Analytics
Shining a Light on the Muni Market
Heightened fiscal risk among U.S. governments is making the municipal market into a scary place. Moody’s Analytics has undertaken several new municipal research initiatives designed to shine a little light on the market and make things a bit less scary for market participants. This session will explore new research into ways to quantitatively gauge and predict municipal credit risk, and outline new tools to help investors stay ahead of the curve with individual issuers.

Speakers:
Sunayana Mehra, Moody's Analytics
Damien Moore, Moody's Analytics
Dan White, Moody's Analytics
4:30 pM TO 4:45 pM

Break

4:45 PM TO 5:30 pM

Guest Speaker 

Nellie Liang, Miriam K. Carliner Senior Fellow - Economic Studies, Brookings Institute

6:00 pM TO 9:00 pM

Networking Event

Day 3

Wednesday, May 9, 2018
8:30 AM TO 9:00 AM

Registration & Breakfast

9:00 AM TO 9:05 AM

Welcome

STREAMS
Balance Sheet Risk
Global Risk
Policy Risk
9:05 AM TO 10:05 AM
The Productivity Puzzle
Productivity growth has lagged in recent years due in part to fallout from the Great Recession, but even as those fetters have faded, growth remains sluggish. We examine alternative explanations for the slowdown, including how changing industry composition has affected regional productivity growth as well as the impact of an aging population.

Speakers:
Dante DeAntonio, Moody's Analytics
Ilir Hysa, Moody's Analytics
Climate Change
In this session, we will present research that we have done to quantify the vulnerability of U.S. counties to the rising threat of climate change. We will also present our research on quantifying the effect that climate change will have on the global economy.

Speaker:
Chris Lafakis, Moody's Analytics
Getting Ready For CECL
The Current Expected Credit Loss or CECL accounting rule set to go into effect in 2020 will dramatically change the way in which banks and other lenders account for loan losses on their financial statements.   CECL will require firms to book an allowance based on an estimate of losses over the remaining lifetime of each loan on their books.  Unlike current accounting procedures, these estimates will need to consider historical and current performance information in addition to forward-looking information on the future state of the economy.  

While the rule change provides broad guidance to firms, it is not prescriptive.  As a result each individual institution will need to consider its own unique situation in order to determine the modeling methodology and set of assumptions that is appropriate for each asset class.  We will highlight some of the key decisions that firms will need to consider in order to successfully implement CECL including the choice of “reasonable and supportable” economic scenarios as well as the definition of “lifetime” for revolving accounts such as consumer credit cards.  Best practices such as the use of industry-level data for benchmarking loss estimates will be discussed  as well.

Conference attendees are welcome to submit any questions or topic suggestions ahead of time to insure these are covered during the session.

Speaker:
Cristian deRitis, Moody's Analytics
10:05 AM TO 10:35 AM

Break

10:35 AM TO 11:35 AM
Infrastructure Reality Check
President Trump’s proposed infrastructure plan aims to produce at least $1.5 trillion in new public and private infrastructure investments. The plan can be graded as a positive on most accounts, but as it stands, the proposal won’t beget the promised level of funding. The federal government will have to contribute much more if it wants to get public infrastructure spending back to its average share of GDP over the past 20 years. This presentation will discuss the factors that have led to a decline in infrastructure investment, and what it may take to reverse this trend. It will also examine the economic impacts of infrastructure spending in an expansion versus recession.

Speakers:
Sarah Crane, Moody's Analytics
Bernard Yaros, Moody's Analytics
Moody’s Analytics’ Approach to Model Validation
We discuss validation best practices and how we apply those to Moody’s internal forecast models and clients’ credit-related external models. We describe the benefits of having an objective third-party review of the internal models on which you rely.

Speakers:
Anamaria Pieschacon, Moody's Analytics
Brian Poi, Moody's Analytics
Credit Risk Modeling
We will start this session by going over the aftermath of IFRS 9 projects implemented across financial institutions worldwide. We will aim at drawing conclusions and lessons learned that can be beneficial for CECL purposes. The emphasis will be on best-practice rules and industry standards rather than on technical discussions.

The second section of our workshop will fast forward to look into to the future shape of credit risk modeling. We will present an idealized framework that connects CCAR/DFAST stress testing with impairment/CECL and advanced risk analytics (such as dynamic portfolio management, risk concentration, pricing, tail risk contributions, risk appetite, and optimal allocations). The purpose of presenting this framework is to think of additional value added that CECL and stress testing can bring once connected to other risk management areas. This can inform some decisions we will be making about the shape and nature of impairment models -and how they connect to stress testing techniques.

The role of macroeconomic scenario analysis, potentially through simulations of macro shocks, becomes pivotal in such proposed environment.

Speakers:
Juan Licari, Moody's Analytics
Pouyan Mashayekh, Moody's Analytics
11:35 AM TO 12:20 pM

Lunch

12:20 pM TO 1:20 pM

Regional Outlook

The outlook for the regional economies is increasingly dependent upon where there is a capacity to grow. Tight labor markets and rising housing costs are causing even the strongest regional economies to slow. Increasingly, policy changes relating to taxes and global trade also help shape the pattern of regional economic growth in the next several years.

Steven Cochrane, Managing Director - Economic Research, Moody's Analytics

1:20 pM TO 1:35 pM

Break

1:35 pM TO 3:15 pM

Regional Roundtable

This is an open-ended discussion of the forecasts and the risks to those forecast for the different regions of the U.S.

A panel of our leading regional economists will take questions from the audience. We will encourage comments and observations from the audience as well. We will have no PowerPoints, just a lively discussion to address your concerns and questions.

Marisa Di Natale, Senior Director - Economic Research, Moody's Analytics

Speakers

Featured Speakers

Hear from some of the leading minds in economic research...

Nellie Liang
Miriam K. Carliner Senior Fellow in Economic Studies
Brookings Institution
Mark Zandi
Chief Economist
Moody's Analytics
highlights

Conference Highlights

Beyond the packed agenda, be sure to take advantage of all that EOC18 has to offer!

NETWORKING

Golf, 5K Run/Walk, a cold beer or a glass of wine, good food and a warm fall evening...whatever the setting, you will have ample opportunity to interact with peers that share the same challenges, and the ability to compare notes and forge relationships.

LUNCH AND LEARNS

Discuss common topics of interest with your peers and Moody's Analytics experts over a casual lunch.

i-ZONE

Attend short 20 minute demos and presentations on topics and solutions of most interest to you given by Moody's Analytics team members. No registration is necessary to visit the i-Zone. Just walk on in!

solutions corner

A unique opportunity to meet one-on-one with Moody's Analytics research and solutions experts during the conference. Last year, 160 risk practitioners benefited from Solutions Corner meetings. Please note that to obtain your desired time slot, we encourage you to request a Solutions Corner appointment when you register for RFPC. Depending on the topics you select, you may be scheduled for more than one appointment. Please take a quick moment to request your appointment today.

lunch and learns

Discuss common topics of interest with your peers and Moody's Analytics experts over a casual lunch.

continuing education credits (cpe)

Satisfy your continuing education credits while learning the latest in risk and finance. 13 CPE credits to be awarded over the 2.5 days.

Other institutions attending include:

  • Amazon Web Services
  • American Bankers Association 
  • American International Group
  • American Express
  • Apple  Bank for Savings 
  • ATB Financial
  • Banco General 
  • Banco Invex, S.A.
  • Bank Iowa
  • Bank of America 
  • Bank of America Merrill Lynch
  • Bank of China
  • BankUnited  
  • Bank of Montreal
  • BBVA Compass
  • Boeing Employees' Credit Union
  • Boston Private Bank & Trust Company
  • Bremer  Bank
  • Brookings Institution
  • Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
  • Capital  One 
  • CIT  Group 
  • Citizens Bank
  • Coast Capital
  • Commerce Bank
  • CompStak
  • Cost Capital Savings
  • CRB Auto
  • Credigy
  • Desjardins Group
  • Dow Jones
  • East West Bank
  • Emirates National Bank of Dubai
  • Fannie Mae
  • Farm Credit Administration
  • Farm Credit Bank of Texas
  • Farm Credit Canada
  • Farm Credit Services of America
  • Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
  • Federal Home Loan Bank of Indianapolis
  • Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco
  • Federal Housing Finance Agency
  • Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
  • Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
  • Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
  • Finagraph
  • Financial Accounting Standards Board
  • First Interstate Bank
  • First National Bank
  • First Republic Bank
  • Flagstar Bank
  • Ford Motor Company
  • Great Western Bank
  • Heartland Financial
  • HSBC
  • International Monetary Fund
  • Investors Bancorp
  • Itaú Unibanco
  • JP Morgan
  • KeyBank
  • Liberty Mutual Investments
  • Mutual Bank of Omaha
  • National Credit Union Association
  • Nationwide
  • NBT Bank
  • Northern Trust
  • Nuveen Investments
  • Overseas Private Investment Corporation
  • PNC Bank
  • Protective Life Corporation
  • Rockland Trust Company
  • SCDM Germany GmbH
  • Self-Insurers' Security Fund
  • Silicon Valley Bank
  • State Employees' Credit Union
  • State Street
  • Synchrony Financial
  • TCF Bank
  • TD Bank
  • Travelers
  • Umpqua Bank
  • Unison Bank
  • U.S. Bank
  • U.S. Department of Agriculture
  • Voya Financial
  • Virtualitics
  • Wells Fargo
  • WEX Bank
  • Zions Bancorporation
Fees

Pricing

One Day
$1,095
Full Conference
$1,895
Group Discount
 Send 3 or more attendees from your institution
& save an additional 20%
Substitutions
Registrants who cannot attend the event for which they have registered are permitted to send a substitution. All substitutions must be sent in writing by email to Heather.Ely@moodys.com no later than 5 business days prior to the event.
Discounts*
venue

DoubleTree by Hilton Hotel Downtown Wilmington

address

700 North King Street
Wilmington, DE 19801

Phone: 1 (302) 655-0400

This year's EOC will be held at the DoubleTree Downtown Wilmington – Legal District., comfortably situated between Philadelphia International Airport and Baltimore Washington International (BWI) Airport. The Amtrak Station (WIL) is 5 blocks away.

The DoubleTree by Hilton Hotel is located in the heart of the legal and financial districts. Minutes from the Wilmington Amtrak Station and complimentary shuttle services. Indoor heated saline swimming pool and 24-hour fitness center.

Reserve  Hotel  Now
PREFERRED ROOM RATES

A preferred room rate of $159 USD per night (plus taxes and fees) is available for registered attendees of EOC18 between May 7 and May 11, subject to availability.

To obtain this rate, you must book by April 20. If booking by phone, mention Moody's Analytics to receive the discount room rate. Please note that rooms are available on a first-come, first serve basis.

Contact Us

Email Heather Ely: Heather.Ely@moodys.com
Phone Client Services: +1.212.553.1653
For a comprehensive list of Moody's Analytics events, visit moodysanalytics.com.

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Thank you for your inquiry

Invite Your Colleagues

Complete the details below and we will prepare a customized invitation

Thank you!
Your request has been received!

We were unable to send. Please check the fields. If the error persists, please email moodysrfpc@moodys.com

close x

Thank you for your inquiry

Invite Your Colleagues

Complete the details below and we will prepare a customized invitation

Thank you!
Your request has been received!

We were unable to send. Please check the fields. If the error persists, please email moodysrfpc@moodys.com